The goal set by Finland’s Climate Act to be carbon neutral by 2035 has recently raised doubts: is it still realistic, given that forest carbon sinks have decreased and emissions from the land use sector have increased? A recent report by a research group led by Professor Markku Ollikainen from the University of Helsinki shows that the goal is still achievable – and in a way that is economically reasonable
According to Ollikainen’s report, in 2035 Finland will have an estimated 14 million tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent remaining in fossil and process emissions. To achieve carbon neutrality, a corresponding sink is needed each year. This sink can be built through a combination of strengthening forest growth, reducing the use of wood for energy, capturing biogenic carbon dioxide, and international cooperation. The report emphasizes that achieving the climate target can go hand in hand with economic growth: the green transition does not erode the foundation of the national economy but can strengthen it.
The means are concrete and feasible.
Reform of the Forest Act, in which Tapio’s recommendations are incorporated into legislation as binding for forest owners. This improves forest growth and carbon sequestration. In recent years in Southern Finland, more has been felled from forests than the forests grow. When the volume of logging exceeds the forests’ regenerative capacity, the carbon sink weakens: less carbon is bound in forests than is released through logging and from the soil.
- A moderate reduction of logging by Metsähallitus. In the short term, the supply of wood may tighten slightly, but in the longer term, forest growth will strengthen. As a result, more large and high-quality sawlogs will be available for industry, with a higher processing value than pulpwood burned for energy. In this way, the measure creates a more sustainable foundation for growth and stronger markets for the future.
- Reducing the burning of wood in energy production through electric boilers. An electric boiler is essentially a large “electric heating element” that produces heat for the district heating network without burning wood or fossil fuels. As electricity increasingly comes from wind and solar, electric boilers offer a clean and cost-effective solution.
- Capture and storage of biogenic carbon dioxide (BeCCS), which at the same time supports the development of green hydrogen and new technologies and opens up new industrial opportunities for Finland.
- International carbon markets (ITMOs), which can be used to balance especially the emissions from peatlands. A vast number of peatlands in Finland have been ditched for forestry use, and when peatlands are drained, their carbon begins to decompose and be released into the air. Emissions can vary greatly depending on weather conditions and the water table, and they are difficult to predict fully. With ITMOs, Finland can balance these surprises by purchasing emission reductions elsewhere – this ensures that the overall situation remains under control and the carbon neutrality target does not collapse because of peatlands.
The costs of these measures will not topple the economy – quite the opposite. According to studies, especially investments in electric boilers and carbon capture can bring additional growth to the economy and create new export opportunities. The forest sector may face short-term adjustment needs, but in the longer term, wood production will strengthen and the competitiveness of industry will improve.
It is also good to remember that delaying action will be more expensive.
It is also good to remember that delaying action will be more expensive. Jyri Seppälä, Chair of the Climate Panel, has stated that without additional measures Finland will not meet the targets of either the EU Effort Sharing Regulation sector or the LULUCF sector. This would mean increasing costs and a loss of credibility in EU negotiations, where agreements are made on, among other things, fulfilling emission obligations in the effort-sharing sector, sink rules for forests and land use, and future emission reduction targets for 2040.
Why is the carbon neutrality target important?
Why is the target important, even though Finland’s share of global emissions is vanishingly small?
We are part of the European Union and committed to its targets. If Finland fails, we will have to pay anyway, but if we succeed, we may even benefit from exporting cost-effective solutions. A small country can also be a bigger influencer than its size suggests. Finland is known as a reliable and capable actor, and developing climate solutions can strengthen our position in the world. Climate change does not consider the size of countries, and its effects are already visible in Finland’s nature, forests, agriculture, and extreme weather events. We have a responsibility to protect our own environment and future generations.
The 2035 carbon neutrality target is not lost. It requires determined and consistent policy that combines forest management, technological innovations, and international cooperation. The transition must be just — individual sectors should not be burdened excessively, but at the same time it must be ensured that everyone participates.
Above all, this is an opportunity. By succeeding, Finland can show the world how ambitious climate targets can be turned into an economic and societal asset.
EN 
FI 